by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Globalization, Innovation, Physical Intelligence, software, Writing and Podcasts
Software Is the central nervous system of the global economy and its demise is greatly exaggerated. There’s a growing narrative thatsoftware is becoming commoditized. Large language models write code. Autonomous agents assemble applications. The barriers to building digital products appear to be collapsing. If software can be generated instantly, then software itself must be losing value.
This conclusion fundamentally misunderstands how technological disruptions develop and expand. Software is becoming the infrastructure layer of modern civilization. The economic, industrial, and geopolitical systems being constructed over the next three decades will not run on software. They will run as software.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, energy, Globalization, Innovation, Investment Principles, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Markets destroy the comfortable assumption that tomorrow behaves like yesterday. They reward those who can identify when the system’s structure changes and punish those who try to fit new realities into old frameworks. That is why the conventional idea of “what something is worth” has become less relevant than how systems evolve. Investors who cling to formulas intended for stable conditions will always be surprised by nonlinear disruption. Nowhere is this more obvious than in AI and energy, where the variables are not just changing, the equations themselves are being rewritten.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Book Chapter, China, Globalization, Innovation, Public Policy, Science, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
The US’s competitive advantage was developing the world’s best educational system, initiating innovative research and development, welcoming the world’s best students to thrive in an unrestricted environment, and accessing unique forms of capital for entrepreneurial ideas. The unique environment that combined academia and entrepreneurship, as seen at places like Bell Labs and Fairchild Semiconductor, was the spark that ignited Silicon Valley, the Life Sciences Corridor, the Innovation District, and the Research Triangle, among others, creating an unprecedented entrepreneurial environment and economic engine. This drove economic growth, disruptive innovation, and greater prosperity. This created a virtuous cycle that enhanced national wealth and economic opportunity. We are undermining all these advantages. The next 20 years will be defined by choices made today. Talent, energy, and technological innovation build the foundation for prosperity. Undermine them, and you guarantee decline.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Book Chapter, China, Globalization, Innovation, Taiwan, Technology, Writing and Podcasts
The sustainability of advanced technologies, unique manufacturing capabilities, global access, and robust supply chains is currently dependent on ill-defined, reckless, and volatile political and economic strategies. Ignoring the reality of the situation and hoping things will eventually work out isn’t a good plan. For decades, the world has relied on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) to produce the most advanced chips, powering everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence. This dependence has created an unprecedented vulnerability: a single geopolitical flashpoint controls the lifeblood of the global digital economy. The challenges of advanced semiconductor technologies and manufacturing are among the most pressing and significant issues of this generation. The U.S. must acknowledge that a world dominated by a single supplier is unsustainable. It must invest not only in fabs but also in intellectual capital, allied coordination, and long-term technological leaps. There is no guarantee of success. The rivalry with China will intensify, and Taiwan will remain a flashpoint. But inaction is the greater risk. Hope may provide comfort, but only strategy, investment, and execution will ensure resilience. Hope is not a plan.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Globalization, irrationality, Science, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
We are on the precipice of technological innovations that could potentially disrupt humanity, but they will not happen overnight, nor will they be out of our control. We have the time and hopefully the perspective to make wise choices.
It’s happened before.
A little over 100 years ago, and within a few decades, the automobile, the airplane, the telephone, and the electrical grid remade the physical and social fabric of life. For the first time, distances collapsed. Cities and homes glowed with electric light. Factories ran with continuous power. Communication traveled instantly across continents. People traveled unimaginable distances in hours rather than weeks or months.
What had been science fiction for centuries became everyday reality, and people felt both awe and dislocation. We can learn from the past, as the scale of disruption from that era was likely far greater than what we are experiencing today.
The Total Perspective Vortex is a form of torture because the truth of one’s insignificance is unbearable. Perhaps that truth is found in the disruptive innovations we admire and fear, the humanity that may be lost in this sea of technological innovation, and our anxiety about our own irrelevance.
We have a deeper responsibility. It’s happened before; perhaps humankind can make better use of the new era of disruptive innovation and our expanding powers more wisely.
In other words, get a perspective.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | China, Economy, Globalization, Public Policy, Technology, Trade, Writing and Podcasts
The United States and China play global economic and political chess games. There are numerous moves and defensive and offensive strategies, not only for trade but also for energy and natural resources (rare earths, among the most recent sources of discord), geopolitics (Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East generally), technology (Taiwan and AI), and global economic supremacy. It’s a long list, but China and the US drive the outcomes. Let’s be clear, Apple designed the iPhone, but it was China’s manufacturing workforce that made it a global phenomenon. China’s millions of engineers and factory workers accumulate practical hands-on knowledge from experience that cannot be easily transferred. This sustainable advantage creates new industries, including electric vehicles, drones, and alternative energy, with world-leading expertise. In the meantime, America’s engineering expertise has been hollowed out. It is naïve to imagine wrestling China back to the past. The project, now, is to contest its moral vision of the future. Connected, collaborative engagement is the only practical way. China has come a long way, and its trajectory cannot be ignored or dismissed. The U.S. and China will be much better off from this more enlightened, realistic perspective.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Currency, Digital Assets, Financial Technology, Globalization, Innovation, Writing and Podcasts
The U.S. Treasury is likely to need to borrow approximately $15 trillion over the next decade. As incredible as that seems, the U.S. Treasury cares about the price of that debt, and therefore, since they are the seller, they need to attract as many buyers as possible to keep the cost of that debt as low as possible. Basic supply and demand at work. Reliable treasury bond buyers are pulling back, primarily China and, to a certain degree, Japan. The Genius Act permits private entities to issue their own stablecoins, provided they are fully backed by U.S. treasuries. That will open up a new set of investors for the U.S. Treasury as it issues its required bonds. On the one hand, it’s an interesting solution because the Treasury can access an expanding market that exists outside the banking system. Expect to see much more international capital flows in US dollars, as well as significantly increased shadow banking among large US-based corporate entities that engage in business with each other and internationally.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Globalization, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Artificial intelligence is driving technological disruption and economic transformation. It is a unique opportunity and, like PCs, the Internet, mobile, and cloud computing before it, AI is driving a new supercycle. Unlike previous technological revolutions, the current transformation is exponential, creating new industries and markets and impacting existing economic structures, costs, distribution, and employment. While productivity and economic growth are expected to surge, the most significant opportunity arises for capital owners, and therefore, investors. AI will be the most significant economic catalyst of the 21st century, fundamentally altering how we work, innovate, and create value.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Book Chapter, China, Globalization, Public Policy, Taiwan, Technology, Trade, uncertainty, Writing and Podcasts
The global investment landscape has reached a structural inflection point. Geopolitical realignments, industrial policy, and national security concerns are reshaping the era of frictionless globalization. At the center of this transformation is the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China. The US is acting belligerently toward China in trade negotiations, threatening exorbitant tariff rates and trying to build walls around China’s international trade activity. All this may be a high-volume attempt to bring China to the table to strike a better trade arrangement. While this tactic is unprecedented, we may only be in the third inning of a nine-inning game. The current geopolitical and economic transition is both a challenge and a multi-decade opportunity. Capital will increasingly flow to regions that demonstrate policy consistency, innovation capacity, and demographic vibrancy. Strategic sectors such as AI, defense, semiconductors, energy, digital infrastructure, and cybersecurity will drive private and public investment. Embracing this new reality of regional diversification, thematic depth, and geopolitical foresight will position participants to thrive. As multipolarity replaces global uniformity, success lies with active, strategic alignment with the forces shaping the next economic era.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, China, Economy, Globalization, Public Policy, Science, Taiwan, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
The convergence of volatile geopolitics fragmented and unpredictable markets, disruptive technologies, and unique opportunities. Understanding geopolitical issues, developing innovative and insightful investment strategies, and navigating political and economic volatility are now essential to achieving investment success.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Book Chapter, China, Economy, Globalization, irrationality, Public Policy, Taiwan, Trade, uncertainty, Writing and Podcasts
A turbulent geopolitical and economic environment is here to stay. Allocating capital in today’s economic and geopolitical landscape requires a sharp focus on macro trends, a disciplined approach to risk, and an ability to anticipate shifts in policy and global power dynamics. The investment landscape has never been more complex, with heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, and Europe’s economic fragility. The new reality is that trade realignments, subsidized industrial policies, and emerging trading blocs characterized by protectionism and localization are rising. Now What?Geopolitical risk is no longer an afterthought. The US-China rivalry, Taiwan’s strategic importance, Europe’s economic fragility, and shifting trade policies will shape the next decade of global markets. Savvy investors will anticipate these changes and allocate capital to industries and regions positioned for sustained growth. The key to success is flexibility, resilience, and the ability to recognize macro trends before they materialize fully. The future is uncertain but full of opportunities.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, China, commodities, Currency, Economy, Globalization, Innovation, Trade, Writing and Podcasts
The United States and China play global economic and political chess games. There are many moves and defensive and offensive strategies, not only for trade but also for energy and natural resources (rare earths among the most recent flavors of discord), geopolitics (Russia, Ukraine, Iran, the Middle East generally), technology (Taiwan and AI), and global economic supremacy. It’s a long list, but China and the US drive the outcomes. Instead of working for mutual benefit, regardless of fundamental cultural and political differences, we are now drawing bright lines demarking battle zones (Ukraine and Russia; Taiwan; AI and advanced technologies). The result will be economic and technical inefficiency and degradation in the quality of life, safety, and prosperity. China must acknowledge the outrage caused by its overreaching bids for control, and America must adjust to China’s presence without selling honor for profit. Competition is not us-or-them; reality is us-and-them. The U.S. semiconductor industry gets 30% of its revenue from China. China’s resulting products service the world, and China’s producers need the U.S. as well. If allowed, such examples of mutual benefit will proliferate. It is naïve to imagine wrestling China back to the past. The project, now, is to contest its moral vision of the future. Connected, collaborative engagement is the only practical way. China has come a long way, and its trajectory cannot be ignored or dismissed. The U.S. and China will be much better off from this more enlightened, realistic perspective. See the whole board.
