The Ten Year Horizon: Volatile, Intense, and Mostly Harmless

The Ten Year Horizon: Volatile, Intense, and Mostly Harmless

This book explores the next decade’s more frequent and intense economic, geopolitical, fiscal, and market volatility, technological innovation, disruption, and hype.

Long-term opportunity exists, and this book uses a 10-year horizon as a surrogate for a long-term perspective. Some of the world’s most important industries are being disrupted, especially finance via digital assets and Blockchain-based businesses, life sciences via gene editing, DNA sequencing, and CRISPR, and communications via advanced wireless data networks, software technologies including artificial intelligence, and new interactive platforms such as the Metaverse.

Digital Assets, Central Banks, and Regulators

Digital Assets, Central Banks, and Regulators

The collapse of FTX shows how easily crypto is manipulated and the “crypto ecosystem” is fundamentally driven by centralized players and not any true form of decentralized or digital assets. Cryptocurrency is a sideshow and benefits no one other than speculators hoping for a greater fool. However, the combination of digital asset regulation, central-bank cooperation, and distributed assets via decentralized platforms still represents one of the most intriguing opportunities, and, with the potential disruption of global finance, one of the most exciting investment areas today.

The Next Ten Years

The Next Ten Years

The onslaught of market-making bad news seems almost a daily event. A gloomy picture of slowing economic growth, elevated inflation, and confusing fiscal and monetary policy has added a lethal mixture to the market’s performance. Fiscal stimulus is sidelined, and monetary policy is constricting economic growth and entrepreneurial innovation. It makes for a gloomy outlook and an even more depressing long-term perspective. The next 10 years look more like a lost decade. High-growth company valuations have been significantly discounted, and over time as discount rates drop, their valuations are likely to increase substantially. Higher-yielding fixed income securities will be a standout performer as interest rates are reduced, the higher-yielding BDCs, REITs, leveraged loan securities, and high cash flow instruments, along with high-dividend equities, will prove extremely attractive and are currently available at bargain prices. Providers of value and users of value will be the winners for the next decade. Those generating real cash flow and disruptive innovation will define the next decade.

Innovation is Essential and a Misguided Sideshow

Innovation is Essential and a Misguided Sideshow

Remarkable things can happen. Or not. Can we solve climate change, food shortage, limited healthcare, and other global stresses – all with TikTok videos? Innovation is unpredictable and astonishing – it can address the world’s most critical issues today, from hunger to efficient energy, to devastating diseases. It is also too often misguided, inefficient, and meaningless – creating nothing more than distractions and wastes of time cloaked in an image of technological wonder. Misguided and manipulative business plans sit alongside the groundbreaking disruptions that may address society’s most significant problems. We don’t have time. Even though there is no clear argument for resources going to a new video-sharing platform or immersive game, that is beside the point. Technology delivers something, nothing else can. It is the only way to find solutions to otherwise intractable and potentially devastating global crises. The freedom to pursue solutions is the essential first step. Letting the best people do their best is still the best policy. It will also generate the best outcome.

Think Differently and Better

Think Differently and Better

The market is consensus thinking. Performing above average means being different. Simply being different doesn’t define success. Success means understanding what it takes to not only think differently but understand when consensus thinking is wrong and executing and implementing those choices effectively. Doing better (generating superior returns with less overall risk) is difficult. Understanding “what’s really going on” is not a simple formula. It requires different, deeper, and better thinking. Depart from the investment crowd, focus on the factors that are necessary and, in combination, sufficient to make a difference, sustain performance and manage risk. It’s not easy or obvious, but it is superior.

A Better Investment Strategy – Data, Discipline, and Rigor

A Better Investment Strategy – Data, Discipline, and Rigor

Let the data tell the story. Remove human bias. Intuitive investment ideas may seem compelling, but more often, these ideas are time-consuming, inefficient, and inferior. Data and verification are more effective, and this approach has generated more successful investment strategies. Diverse thinking, diverse data, innovative approaches, and a willingness to be wrong and start over typically bring superior results. Trust the model. Data, discipline, and rigor win more often.

Automated Trading – Why Algorithms Win

Automated Trading – Why Algorithms Win

Automated trading strategies provide numerous advantages for implementing successful investment strategies. A rigorous and disciplined approach can lead to profitable strategies far superior to human discretionary trading.

Automated trading is disciplined trading. The strategy will do exactly as the underlying software is written. The software will enter trades based on the core logic of the strategy and likewise exit trades according to its exit logic. Irrational human behavior and biased decision-making do not interfere.

A New Vision for Artificial Intelligence

A New Vision for Artificial Intelligence

A new vision for artificial intelligence is using smaller more relevant data sets for dynamic learning generating more effective outcomes and better predictions. This model uses cognitive architecture, learns, transfers learning, and retains knowledge – enabling more valuable and compelling artificial intelligence applications. Our approach is more closely related to the brain’s actual structures and much more effective than “neural networks,” which is a catchy name but the similarity to the brain’s actual functioning is in name only. Real advancement in artificial intelligence must live in reality, not theoretical marketing. This video discusses our perspective on the current state of artificial intelligence, the shortcomings of big data and trial and error approaches, and the most effective solution and its prospects. Smaller data sets, more relevant information, dynamic data, and algorithms will lead to more appropriate outcomes, better tools, and more effective applications, especially within Arcadia’s algorithmic trading.

Arcadia Capital and the Future of Asset Management

Arcadia Capital and the Future of Asset Management

Arcadia Capital announces its new digital token in partnership with Red Matter.

“Equity tokens issued on a blockchain platform are potentially the most disruptive threat to existing equity markets.” (World Economic Forum)

New digital platforms created by decentralized finance companies, such as Red Matter, integrate securities and other digital assets comprehensively. The platforms enable asset managers like Arcadia to issue, trade, settle, and provide custody services for digital assets, usually consisting of digitally native equity tokens (ICOs). This innovation is exemplified by Arcadia Digital Token Arcadia’s Digital Token.

Digital asset platforms, such as Red Matter, exist in parallel to existing market infrastructure and securities markets. Arcadia’s offering is an alternative digitized version of a typical standard asset management investment in Arcadia’s investment fund. Arcadia Capital is taking advantage of this transformative technology to present an opportunity to any qualified investor anywhere in the world to invest in our digital token.

Reality and the Crypto Crash

Reality and the Crypto Crash

Cryptocurrency staying power has certainly been challenged these last few weeks. There is been a general market drop (even correction), but crypto has been collapsing in value and, to many, is in a death spiral. Of course, reality is more nuanced, and with more detailed analysis, a broad brush hardly seems appropriate. Certainly, the weakest and, honestly, craziest portions of the crypto world have been exposed to be nothing more than silliness. But some components remain resilient. The market is quite effective at sorting the specifics of an otherwise overgeneralized sector. There is no such thing as “crypto.” There are stable and valuable digital assets, globally exchangeable and disruptive. Others have nothing but fluff. Of course, government should insist on more reliable information, and institutions should guard more effectively against fraud. But, there is wheat among the chaff, and it continues to have the potential to be disruptive, create substantial value, and enhance global prosperity.

Arcadia Launches New Proprietary Trading Platform

Arcadia Launches New Proprietary Trading Platform

Arcadia Capital Group, a proprietary algorithmic investment fund, is proud to announce that our world-class software development team has launched Arcadia’s new proprietary trading platform. This platform focuses its strategies on public securities, including equities, derivatives, futures, and crypto. The team’s scientific and technological background, investment, and entrepreneurial experience enable it to develop our disciplined, algorithmic, and proprietary approaches that both manage risk in increasingly and more intense volatile markets, and profit disproportionately from this volatility.