A New Era of Unprecedented Innovation and Global Disruption?
Maybe.
But it’s not predictive or straightforward. There’s too much noise and hype; it will take much longer, but we are at the precipice of some technological innovations that will disrupt humanity potentially, but they will not happen overnight, nor will they be out of our control. We have the time and hopefully the perspective to make wise choices.
The Vortex
Douglas Adams’ Total Perspective Vortex was the ultimate torture device because it forced someone to grasp their true insignificance within the infinite scale of the universe. Applying this today, perhaps we are overstating the significance of our own inventions, our importance, and the impact they will have on humankind.
Artificial intelligence, space travel, and self-driving cars are interesting engineering developments, and indeed, some will have a significant impact on modern society. But it’s reasonable to confront the scope of these changes and be humble regarding our actual impact without overstating its importance.
In other words, get a perspective.
The Unprecedented Already Happened
Humankind has experienced unprecedented technological innovation that has fundamentally changed our lives. Today’s era might be better described as variations on that innovative foundation, but probably not with the same industrial and cultural impact of the innovations we have already seen.
A little over 100 years ago, humanity experienced its own version of this perspective shock. Within a few decades, the automobile, the airplane, the telephone, and the electrical grid remade the physical and social fabric of life. For the first time, distances collapsed. Cities and homes glowed with electric light. Factories ran with continuous power. Communication traveled instantly across continents. People traveled unimaginable distances in hours rather than weeks or months.
What had been science fiction for centuries became everyday reality, and people felt both awe and dislocation. The world seemed bigger in its connections, yet smaller in its accessibility – a paradox similar to the vertigo induced by Adams’ Vortex, and also similar to the experiences we are living through today. However, we can learn from the past, as the scale of disruption from that era was likely far greater than what we are experiencing today.
Get a Perspective
Society has been able to cope with the effects of the electrical grid, the automobile, and other innovations from over a century ago. These innovations took time, changed lives, but were absorbed, modified, and adapted to while generating unprecedented economic growth. These fundamental changes did not create a dystopian future nor a utopian society. Lives improved, innovation accelerated, and the average citizen lived a better, healthier life with more luxuries and conveniences than the wealthiest person in the world did in 1850.
The same will be true of our current era of “unprecedented” innovation and disruption. We can absorb artificial intelligence, self-driving vehicles, space travel, new forms of energy, and other emerging innovations into our lives, creatively develop new opportunities, and improve the quality of life for many.
This “new era” is unlikely to be any different from the impact, timeline, modifications, economic growth, and prosperity we’ve experienced from other impactful innovations.
We Have Seen This Movie
Artificial intelligence is a powerful tool. It is not magic; it will not change our lifestyle and culture overnight, but it will impact us significantly.
Artificial intelligence is a unique, disruptive technology permeating every industry, job, and personal life. Apparently, our lives will never be the same. But to what extent will our lives really be impacted, and haven’t we had to adapt to equivalent changes and developments before?
Artificial intelligence is often imagined in extremes — utopian dreams of salvation or dystopian fears of extinction. More realistically, AI is likely to be an essential technology used by us every day. Indisputably, AI will be transformative, but not magical and unprecedented.
AI’s potential disruption is not unlike what we’ve already experienced from technologies like electricity or the internet. Its impact will unfold over decades, be uneven, shaped by human institutions, policies, and societal adoption patterns, and incorporated into our lives.
It will not be sudden leaps into autonomous superintelligence.
It’s Good Engineering – and Hype
Great innovative companies are emerging. The technological innovations and engineering accomplishments are impressive. Nvidia has developed powerful semiconductors capable of processing massive amounts of data. Tesla has driven the electrification of the automotive platform and the potential for self-driving cars. SpaceX has disrupted the cost structure of space travel and satellite launches.
Predictions include AI-driven robots in humanoid form performing all functions, from manufacturing to personal service. Quantum computers may potentially process multiple trillions of bits of data simultaneously. Nuclear fusion may provide clean and limitless energy. The list of blue-sky dreams and utopian developments goes on. None of this will happen overnight, even within the next decade or two, if ever. Reality is very different, and a little more perspective is valuable.
This Time It’s Not Different
But, further inspection into the vortex reveals more hype than innovative disruption. After all, Tesla is a car, and there is nothing new about that. Having an electrified drivetrain is an interesting development, but hardly disruptive. We had rockets and space travel for a long time. SpaceX is a more cost-effective way to deliver a service that is probably ultimately still unprofitable, just less expensive. Even Nvidia has improved upon the integrated circuit with innovative designs, but this is hardly something we haven’t seen before. It’s an accelerating trajectory, but not a new path.
This is excellent engineering, and these and other accomplishments are laudable; however, these modifications and enhancements align with a trend that already exists. They have not upended society or fundamentally changed the way we live.
It’s Sharpened Rocks
However, artificial intelligence is different because it is a tool that can make tools. This is synonymous with the Internet – a communication and development platform to create global products and services. Also, AI will probably require decades of development and refinement, and its adaptation will be uneven, lengthy, and unpredictable. However, it also has the potential for unprecedented economic growth and cultural impact.
It is the equivalent of the first stone tools. Not only did sharpened rocks give humankind a much more powerful tool that had never existed before, but they also provided an effective means of creating new tools.
AI is a sharpened rock, and the AI era is our equivalent of the new Stone Age. For the first time, humankind had tools to make tools. Now, in the AI age, we have a potent tool that not only makes tools, but all those tools are software, meaning these tools can permeate the planet instantly.
That is the perspective and unprecedented power humankind must manage.
We Have Seen This Before
Does all this combine to be unprecedented innovation and unmanageable disruption? Disruptive technologies are apparently being developed faster than we can adapt to the full impact of their disruption.
Really?
Today’s innovations may not be the fast-paced, disruptive force we assume, and these “disruptions” may not come close to the scale of society’s experiences over 100 years ago.
The Perspective Vortex
Consider the following innovations, all occurring within a short time of each other. Each has truly changed our lives and had a dramatic impact on communities, nations, and the planet.
- 1876: Alexander Graham Bell develops the telephone and forms the Bell Telephone Company one year later.
- 1882: General Electric (with Thomas Edison at the helm) develops the first electrical grid in lower Manhattan. For the next several decades, General Electric (with Edison) and Westinghouse (using the technology developed by Nikola Tesla) battled for the establishment of the nation’s electrical grid.
- 1885: Louis Pasteur develops the first vaccine against a disease that is effective for human beings. Over the next several decades, vaccines were developed that effectively prevent diseases such as smallpox, diphtheria, tetanus, cholera, plague, typhoid, tuberculosis, and others, saving hundreds of millions of lives.
- 1886: Karl Benz patents “a vehicle powered by a gas engine,” and personal transportation will never be the same. The first mass-produced automobile in the United States was by Oldsmobile in 1901.
- 1903: The Wright Brothers develop motorized flight. We landed on the moon less than 70 years later.
- 1916: Westinghouse Radio develops the first broadcast radio station.
- 1928: Arthur Fleming discovers penicillin, and its refined form saves tens of millions of lives.
Disruption is overused today, especially when put in this context. While new technologies and incumbent companies may be “disrupted” by competitive forces that technology enables, the net impact does not come close to this kind of scale.
The telephone, electric grid, vaccines, the automobile, the airplane, broadcast media, and effective antibiotics truly disrupted lives. Being able to get groceries more conveniently and carrying a phone or even a computer in my pocket doesn’t seem to meet the same standard.
Perhaps artificial intelligence and the innovations created from this tool will have an impact equivalent to the total of all these developments from over 100 years ago. The personal computer, the Internet, mobile technology, and now potentially AI are certainly impactful. However, with this historical perspective, the actual impact will be longer, more uneven, and less predictable.
Humanity and Wisdom
Douglas Adams used the Vortex as a form of torture because the truth of one’s insignificance was unbearable. Perhaps that truth is found in the disruptive innovations we fear, the humanity that may be lost in this sea of technological innovation, or our own fear of irrelevance.
We have a deeper responsibility with these expanding powers. It’s happened before; perhaps humankind can make better use of the new era of disruptive innovation and our expanding powers more wisely.