by Nicholas Mitsakos | Book Chapter, Green Energy, Science, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
A new generation of clean, reliable, and flexible energy technologies, including, geothermal and advanced nuclear energy, is emerging. The story is no longer about clean and renewable energy. Solar and wind have their place, but capital investment and policy incentives are now focused on reliable, low-cost, controllable, domestic energy. For the first time in years, the policy, market, and demand signals are aligned in favor of a portfolio of solutions that are testing the edges of technology and are no longer narrow niches.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Globalization, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Artificial intelligence is driving technological disruption and economic transformation. It is a unique opportunity and, like PCs, the Internet, mobile, and cloud computing before it, AI is driving a new supercycle. Unlike previous technological revolutions, the current transformation is exponential, creating new industries and markets and impacting existing economic structures, costs, distribution, and employment. While productivity and economic growth are expected to surge, the most significant opportunity arises for capital owners, and therefore, investors. AI will be the most significant economic catalyst of the 21st century, fundamentally altering how we work, innovate, and create value.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Biotechnology, Book Chapter, Science, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
With better models, more effective benchmarks, and a framework for constant improvement, now is the time to focus AI on complex, innovative, and transformational tasks. Essentially, AI and models should focus on hard tech. Hard tech refers to businesses rooted in advanced engineering and scientific innovation, often involving the development of physical products or systems that address complex challenges. Beyond drones, robots, and AI-driven hardware, the following are prominent examples of hard tech opportunities across industries. AI-driven hard tech is creating new business models and industries, such as personalized medicine, autonomous logistics, smart infrastructure, and agentic AI platforms that autonomously manage complex operations, reshaping the competitive landscape and unlocking new avenues for value creation. As a result, businesses and professionals who embrace interdisciplinary skills and continuous learning will thrive in the hard tech ecosystem.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
So far, we’ve attempted to answer that question through benchmarks. These give models a fixed set of questions to answer and grade them on how many they get right. But just like exams, these benchmarks don’t always reflect deeper abilities. Lately, it seems as if a new AI model is released every week, and each time a company introduces one, it comes with fresh scores showing it surpassing the capabilities of its predecessors. AI research is a hypercompetitive infinite game. An infinite game is open-ended—the goal is to keep playing. However, in AI, a dominant player often produces a significant result, triggering a wave of follow-up papers that chase the same narrow topic. This race-to-publish culture puts enormous pressure on researchers, rewarding speed over depth and short-term wins over long-term insight. If academia chooses to play a finite game, it will lose.
This “finite vs. infinite game” framework also applies to benchmarks. So, do we have a truly comprehensive scoreboard for evaluating the true quality of a model? Not really. Many dimensions—social, emotional, interdisciplinary—still evade assessment. But the wave of new benchmarks hints at a shift. As the field evolves, a bit of skepticism is probably healthy.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Algorithmic Trading, Book Chapter, Innovation, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Artificial intelligence is often imagined in extremes — utopian dreams of salvation or dystopian fears of extinction. More realistically, AI should be viewed as a normal technology. AI will be transformative, like electricity or the internet. Still, it will unfold over decades, shaped by human institutions, policies, and societal adoption patterns, not by sudden leaps into autonomous superintelligence. AI is not miraculous and unpredictable. It is transformative and will impact many lives for many decades. AI will not create extreme utopian or apocalyptic visions. It will be part of a continuum of human technological advances, powerful and transformative but ultimately shaped by human choices, institutions, and values. Focusing on resilience, gradual adaptation, institutional innovation, and evidence-based governance can help society maximize AI’s benefits while managing its genuine risks. The future of AI will not be determined by the technology alone. We will determine it.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, China, Economy, Globalization, Public Policy, Science, Taiwan, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
The convergence of volatile geopolitics fragmented and unpredictable markets, disruptive technologies, and unique opportunities. Understanding geopolitical issues, developing innovative and insightful investment strategies, and navigating political and economic volatility are now essential to achieving investment success.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, China, Globalization, Innovation, Public Policy, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Significant VC activity and AI development opportunities are emerging in China. DeepSeek is the Vanguard of innovation from the artificial intelligence “moonshot” encouraged by the Chinese government. Not only will we see ongoing developments from Alibaba and Tencent, but there will also be a layer of elite AI companies at the forefront of China’s AI sector. US sanctions and restrictions have only increased innovation and groundbreaking AI development activity in China. Those sanctions will amount to nothing and encourage accelerated advancement.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, China, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
The announcement of a $500 billion commitment to building AI infrastructure in the United States, is another major salvo in the AI wars. At this point, it’s hard to distinguish whether this is just hyperbole from hyperventilating technology executives or something with real substance.
But, more importantly, it indicates an agenda to “win” in artificial intelligence. OpenAI, Softbank, and others are pushing the narrative to “beat China” and align themselves with the Trump administration. Fundamental is a belief that such a race exists, the US can gain advantage by dedicating computer resources, and it’s worth winning at all costs – whatever that means.
Unfortunately, computer resources don’t define a sustainable advantage anymore. A decoupling of resources and cooperation between the United States and China have forced the Chinese to develop near-equivalent models while using only a fraction of resources. bigger data centers, substantial computing resources, and overwhelming numbers of GPU production won’t win this arms race.
It’s A Zero-Sum Game That Amounts to Nothing.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Innovation, Investment Principles, Investments, irrationality, The Market, Transformative businesses, uncertainty, Writing and Podcasts
Predicting what’s next has been a fool’s game, and it continues to be. The S&P 500 was up 26% in 2023 and 25% in 2024, for the best two-year stretch since 1997-98. That brings us to 2025. What lies ahead? Rationality, Optimism, exuberance, disappointment, correction, and more frequent and intense volatility—with uncertainty about the timing, extent, and outcome. Is enthusiasm for new technology creating a bubble, and will the bubble burst? Optimism has prevailed in the markets since late 2022, generating above-average valuations and astonishing returns for some (primarily AI-related) equities. Stocks in most industrial groups sell at high multiples, but enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and the persistence of the Magnificent 7 drive most market expectations. There is the implicit presumption that the top seven companies will continue to be successful and that the “new thing” (artificial intelligence) will drive valuations even higher. However, stocks may sit still for the next 10 years as earnings rise and multiples return to earth. Another possibility is that the multiple correction is compressed into a year or two, implying a significant decline in stock prices. Be aware of Mr. Market’s irrational behavior. It’s not going to be a smooth pathway forward; there will be great investment opportunities, as there are in any market, but overall, it’s a high starting point. It’s time to be neutral.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Digital Assets, Finance, Financial Technology, Innovation, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Apple can disrupt global finance. Visa and MasterCard are now vulnerable. Previously, it was believed that the capital required for infrastructure, systems, and processing was an insurmountable obstacle to any new competitor. But things have changed. Innovation and disruption in the credit card business pose a threat to established players like Visa and MasterCard. Apple can leverage its ecosystem, user experience focus, brand trust, strategic partnerships, and innovative use of data to succeed in the credit card business. Over time, as it scales and innovates, it could challenge Visa and MasterCard’s market dominance.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, Book Chapter, Innovation, Science, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
AI is not a data problem; it is a cognitive architecture problem. Data and computing power will become insurmountable hurdles for transformer-based models. A new generation of AI models requires fundamental breakthroughs. Large data models can’t learn, transfer knowledge or understanding, understand the relevance, or use analogous learning to transfer that relevance and predict. Current AI models require massive and increasing data and learn from reinforcement. This cannot scale and is massively inefficient. Real learning based on cognitive architecture, focused dynamic data, and referential data sets is a better solution. This is closer to real human learning, more effective and efficient, and offers a significantly better solution. Understanding the natural learning process — referential and analogous data, categorization, transferring and building upon that data, and creating knowledge applicable to new situations — learning builds upon itself and is exponentially effective. That is the real AI solution.
by Nicholas Mitsakos | Artificial Intelligence, China, Economy, Globalization, Innovation, Investment Principles, Technology, Transformative businesses, Writing and Podcasts
Chairman Xi faces more significant problems than just a declining stock market. Future prosperity, innovation, and China’s global position in advanced technologies are at stake. Bureaucratic regulation and central government money are not the answer, and an uncomfortable truth for communist bureaucrats is that a free market, access to venture capital and private equity, and vibrant public markets are essential for China’s success. A volatile market is still best at attributing value and allocating capital over time. China’s entrepreneurs have brilliance, incomparable fortitude, and a strong work ethic, but without capital and liquidity for that capital, the ship will run aground. Permanent capital is essential for the growth of an economy, innovation, and prosperity. Liquidity is essential for that capital.
