Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets: Terror and Opportunity

Cryptocurrency and Digital Assets: Terror and Opportunity

Cryptocurrencies Hit New Highs. Should we be terrified?

Probably.

Bitcoin, Ether and, the most recent joke, frenzy, and punch line, Dogecoin, have increased 10x to 20x over the last 12 months. A spectacular return, but can it last?

Probably not.

The forces driving the eye-watering returns are the same as those that drove the insanity behind GameStop: the equivalent of a trading floor in every pocket funded with excess cash looking for disruptive investment opportunities and charging forward like an out of control herd – or lemmings – however you want to envision it. Cryptocurrency became the overwhelming target of Reddit day traders and mobs. Social media influencers, led by various forms of PT Barnum imitators like Elon Musk and many less sophisticated contributors, combined with the public listing of Coinbase to create a massive rally
Despite making inroads, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are still only a tool for speculators. There is no prospect of stable value enabling the fair exchange of assets for goods and services. It is a store of value, but much like any speculative asset, it can be a store value that fluctuates wildly.

That is not to say that some speculative assets, whether they be works of art, sports cars, or digital currencies can’t ultimately have long-term value and generate excellent investment returns. But digital coins are only one part of the digital asset platform, and will most likely prove to be a sideshow. The real opportunity for value creation, sustainability, and appreciation is the right business model and digital platform for the creation of digital assets that are easily and securely exchanged

Digital Central Banks

Digital Central Banks

Because bureaucratic governments handle innovation so well. Initiative, savvy, luck, circumstance, and convolution have taken over currencies – at least digital creations purporting to be currencies. Not to be outdone, here come central bank digital coins...

Digital Central Banks

Because bureaucratic governments handle innovation so well. Initiative, savvy, luck, circumstance, and convolution have taken over currencies – at least digital creations purporting to be currencies. Not to be outdone, here come central bank digital coins...
Ethereum

Ethereum

The Ethereum platform is more than just a host for cryptocurrency. A broad range of digital assets can be created and transacted making it a potential dominant digital asset blockchain development tool. Check out this episode!

Ethereum

The Ethereum platform is more than just a host for cryptocurrency. A broad range of digital assets can be created and transacted making it a potential dominant digital asset blockchain development tool. Check out this episode!
Stimulus and Silliness

Stimulus and Silliness

The world economy is struggling. During the worst of this pandemic, the world’s developed economies provided an enormous fiscal stimulus on a scale not seen since the second world war. Now, the US is proposing to more than double its already generous fiscal...

Stimulus and Silliness

 The world economy is struggling. During the worst of this pandemic, the world’s developed economies provided an enormous fiscal stimulus on a scale not seen since the second world war. Now, the US is proposing to more than double its already generous fiscal...
Understanding Risk

Understanding Risk

Risk is the permanent loss of capital. It is not volatility, nor is it uncertainty. It is the realization of a loss. Therefore, risk is only clear with hindsight. Understanding how risk works avoids the mistakes that cause the permanent loss of capital. Check out this...
Digital Central Banks

Digital Central Banks

Initiative, savvy, luck, circumstance, and convolution have taken over currencies – or at least digital creations purported to be currencies (but in reality don’t, and never will, quite fit the bill). Those entities that create and support real currencies are taking notice. In other words, welcome to government in action. Here come central bank digital coins

Luck rather than leadership, circumstance rather than foresight or political skill, seem to have been more helpful in triggering these developments. Digital coins (while loosely described as “currency” are more like a digital asset easily transferred and accounted for in a digital ledger) represent a handful of rather clever people taking on central government’s mighty bureaucrats. Armed with simplicity, clarity, and algorithms, they are defeating all administrations’ fondness for complexity, confusion, and rules.

In general, bureaucrats are masters of the art of convolution. Essentially, governments work overtime to create farce in the spirit of precision. An example of bureaucratic absurdity can be found in France (admittedly, a country that has taken bureaucracy to an art form – perhaps more so than art itself). When the government started a new lockdown because of the pandemic, they devised a two-page permission form to leave home, with 15 different justifications, before, thankfully, shelving it in the face of ridicule. The French can buy alcohol, for instance, but not underwear. These rules were simply to be able to walk out the front door, and the government imagined that this kind of detailed process was somehow useful, and not the bewildering reality it represented.

Now imagine these “developed” governments (of whom France is probably not the worst offender) trying to deal with a global currency, currency exchanges, and the transfer of funds internationally. We don’t have to look too far to find the convoluted rules behind Bretton Woods, the WTO, and other international absurdities to recognize that this problem is not easily solved, or even understood. Bureaucrats are generally better at devising rules, charging fees, and collecting taxes and information than making anything that is useful or even comprehensible.