The hyperbole begins.
The announcement of a $500 billion commitment to building AI infrastructure in the United States, is another major salvo in the AI wars. At this point, it’s hard to distinguish whether this is just hyperbole from hyperventilating technology executives or something with real substance.
But, more importantly, it indicates an agenda to “win” in artificial intelligence. OpenAI, Softbank, and others are pushing the narrative to “beat China” and align themselves with the Trump administration. Fundamental is a belief that such a race exists, the US can gain advantage by dedicating computer resources, and it’s worth winning at all costs – whatever that means.
Unfortunately, computer resources don’t define a sustainable advantage anymore. A decoupling of resources and cooperation between the United States and China have forced the Chinese to develop near-equivalent models while using only a fraction of resources. bigger data centers, substantial computing resources, and overwhelming numbers of GPU production won’t win this arms race.
It’s A Zero-Sum Game That Amounts to Nothing.
When “national security” is used as a blanket to influence and interfere with research and development, entrepreneurship, and access to resources, it assumes your target has no other options. This is naïve on so many dimensions, especially when dealing with China. it only motivates self-sufficiency and creates a formidable competitor instead of exploiting comparative advantage for optimal returns for both the US and China.
It is a fool’s errand to believe that export controls and other restrictions can hold back China’s progress on AI and advanced semiconductors. Instead of enabling the US to benefit from bilateral and multilateral engagements, it compromises development, wastes resources, and gives sub optimal results. The paradox is that a better outcome from cooperation and competition is ignored.
Weaponizing AI
Any real threat is not from China but from bad actors. It is naïve to think that, as with nuclear arms, we can restrict access and prevent potential harm from rogue players. Software that’s easily accessible globally cannot be contained. AI is an asymmetric technology that will be difficult to prevent and defend against if a determined foe wishes to use it for nefarious purposes. The two leading AI centers, the US and China, should be cooperating in mitigating such threats.
Good fences do not make good neighbors.
The current path undermines global stability, stalls scientific progress, and increases tensions while heading blindly down a risky path of isolation and polarization. There is no “winner take all.”
China has made no secret that AI is a national priority, and current policy will only isolate and put China at odds with the United States. Perhaps cooler heads can prevail, and we can identify areas of collaboration and cooperation. The outcome of the Tik-Tok drama may be a preview of how these countries may or may not be able to work together even on a less confrontational pathway.
AI For Good
In the West, we are overwhelmed with articles defining the existential risks and the evil of AI. No credible research shows that increasing AI’s capabilities increases access to evil. but facts and clear thinking on getting in the way of fear driven conclusions.
While public sentiment may be negative regarding AI, it is quite the opposite in developing countries. AI is a technology that can transform lives and improve education, healthcare, and productivity. It is one of the most powerful tools we’ve seen to elevate the quality of life, and the US and Western governments fail to realize that those same benefits directly improve all lives and improve not only interactions among countries, raising the welfare and lifestyle globally, it creates new markets and more significant potential for prosperity.
AI will help accelerate scientific discovery, develop new drugs, extend healthy lifespans, reduce many tasks, accelerate efficiency, and enable greater access to higher-quality education. This sounds idealistic, but the powerful tool that AI represents can enable it.
A War Nobody Wants
Escalating AI competition between the United States and China threatens both nations and impacts the world. The risks in this rivalry are not hypothetical. The current saber-rattling threatens global peace, economic stability, and technological progress. This is a circular relationship: greater technological progress leads to greater economic prosperity, which leads to more economic stability, which leads to greater global peace. We interrupt this virtuous cycle at our peril. The other direction is a downward spiral and, unfortunately, that seems to be the current trajectory.
Framing the development of artificial intelligence as a zero-sum game undermines the collective advancement of society and our security. Warlike rhetoric and confrontation can appeal to the masses. Still, cooler minds and deeper thinking from both the United States and China are imperative.it is imperative to do what’s necessary to shift towards more collaboration, cooperation, and competition on an equal playing field.